Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Thursday, March 28th, 2024

The Evolving Islamic State in Afghanistan

The creeping emergence of the Islamic State group is increasingly becoming a nightmarish insurgency development in Afghanistan. An American commander has confirmed that there are links between Afghan Islamic State fighters and the main militant group in Iraq. However, according to the US military the Islamic State in Afghanistan is not as serious as the militants in the Middle East. The comments are coming while earlier American military officials had said that despite operational activities of the Islamic State group in Afghanistan, there are no direct connections between the Afghan Islamic State and the main headquarters of the group in Iraq and Syria. In the meantime, speaking to a gathering of women activists, politicians and diplomats in Kabul on Tuesday June 30, 2015, President Ashraf Ghani said that extremists from over ten countries are fighting as part of the insurgency in the country. 

The comments made by the US commander over links between Afghan and Middle Eastern factions of the Islamic State are coming as an alarm for Afghanistan. However, the extent of the relations between the Afghan militants and the main group in the Middle East remains unclear. So far, the common belief in Afghanistan has been that the militants announcing their loyalty to the Islamic State group are disgruntled factions of the Taliban who are not directly commanded by the Islamic State in Iraq/Syria. If the case is true, the nature of relations between the self-declared Islamic State group in Afghanistan and the militants in Syria and Iraq would be a milestone for the evolvement of the Taliban-IS insurgency in Afghanistan.

Despite unfounded optimisms in the Afghan government, there is a high chance of direct dependency of the IS militants in Afghanistan with the main group in the Middle East. In recent months, the Islamic State has been actively expanding their activities and recruiting fighters particularly disgruntled members of the Taliban. The Afghan Islamic State group has made considerable progresses in promoting their program in Afghanistan and increasing their power against the rival Taliban. The Taliban and the Islamic State has clashed in many districts of the eastern Nangarhar province as well as in Southern Farah province. Initially many believed the Islamic State would never be able to find a foothold in Afghanistan. However, now the Islamic State not has only found a foothold in the country but also powerfully confronted the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan. Now the newly emerging group has an undeniable presence in Afghanistan.

Now it appears the nature of relations between the Afghan Islamic State militants and the group’s main headquarters in Iraq is changing. If the Afghan faction of the Islamic State group manages to work under leadership of the Syrian Islamic State, the situation would change for worse. Seemingly the Afghan Islamic State’s control by the Syrian/Iraqi Islamic State would be inevitable. The Islamic State would ultimately emerge as a major threat to security and stability of Afghanistan in the coming decade. However, it is premature to predict the Islamic State’s power and influence in the country against its rival group, the Taliban. Most probably Taliban or part of the group will remain as the main insurgency in the country. But the Islamic State would also come to a prominence in the insurgency at national level.

On other hand, the threat of the Islamic State would be directly related to the progress of the peace talks with the Taliban. If the Afghan government manages to cut any kind of a peace deal with the Taliban’s main group, there would be a high chance of a split between the Taliban. The hardline elements of the Taliban have always opposed peace negotiations with the Afghan government. In case of cutting a peace deal with the Taliban, the hardline elements will probably be pushed to the Islamic State group’s ranks. If any split happens among the Taliban, the group would no longer be able to prevent its members from joining the Islamic State or countering the influence of the group.

The deepening rifts between the Taliban and the Islamic State group in Afghanistan also suggest increasing control of the Afghan IS fighters by the main Iraqi Islamic State. Recently, the Islamic State has warned Taliban members over fighting against the emerging group threatening to kill themselves and burn their homes. As President Ghani said, hundreds of foreign militants are fighting in Afghanistan. Given the Islamic State ferocity, foreign militants in Afghanistan may also incline to join the Islamic State group. According to Interior Minister Noorul Haq Ulomi, hundreds of foreign fighters from Pakistan, Central Asian republics, the Russia’s Chechnya, and the Turkic Muslim minority in western China have established bases in Afghanistan after being pushed out of Pakistan. In practice, these foreign militants have their jihad approaches common with the Islamic State group while they have fundamental differences with the Taliban.

The Afghan government cannot afford underestimating the emerging Islamic State group in Afghanistan. Nor it can afford the Iraqi Islamic State’s increasing control and influence over the Afghan militants splinted from the Taliban. In addition to equipping and training Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), the government needs to forge a regional approach for shred combat against the militant groups particularly the Islamic State. As the President suggested “there should be enhanced regional cooperation to address regional challenges”, the Afghan government needs to redouble its efforts to work with the regional powers for building a shared regional approach in fighting the Islamic State and other militant groups.