Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Thursday, April 18th, 2024

The Prospect of Security in Coming Months

with the Taliban offensive intensifying across the country, the prospect of security in the country remains uncertain. Speaking at a parliamentary session, Afghan security officials assured about readiness of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) in tackling the ongoing insurgency in the country. National Directorate of Security (NDS) chief, Rahmattulah Nabil, said that the security situation would worsen in the coming months, and there would be need for more concentrated efforts from Afghanistan's security agencies for containing the insurgency.

Regarding the ongoing intense security challenges in the country this year, the security officials that said Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) have taken complete responsibility of security from NATO forces, further compounding the situation for the ANSF. In recent weeks, the Taliban have been able to make some gains in taking grounds in the provinces and launching spectacular attacks elsewhere in the country including the recent assault on the parliament. Despite that the ANSF has managed to repel the Taliban offensive in some provinces and take back most of the areas taken by the Taliban, the victories for the militant groups have sparked concerns over the capabilities of the ANSF to counter the Taliban in this year's fighting season.

Given the complicated security challenges and the intense anti-insurgency war going on this year, the security officials believe this year would 'the year of survival' for Afghanistan. The Taliban's spring offensive is aimed at making the most possible gains including taking grounds in provinces like Kunduz in the north and Helmand in the south. A number of somehow unrelated factors have complicated the security situation in the country and the anti-insurgency war against the Taliban and other militant groups. It is believed that hundreds and even thousands of foreign militant fighters have escaped Pakistan's military crackdown on the militant groups in the country's North Waziristan and massed in insecure provinces of Afghanistan. According to Afghan officials, over seven thousand foreign militants have presence in Afghanistan this year fighting alongside the Taliban and other militant groups. This is while the Taliban are estimated to have around 30,000 fighters.

As an additional factor to Afghanistan's jihadi activities, the foreign fighters pose a significant threat to Afghanistan's security. The emergence of the Islamic State groups, or Daesh, has emerged as another puzzle for both the Afghan government and the Taliban as the traditional jihadi group in Afghanistan. While the Taliban is finding it difficult to firmly maintain their influence in all the provinces, many other militant factions have also found a foothold in some certain parts of Afghanistan. While the Taliban maintain a presence in all provinces, its influence in some areas has been declining. The Islamic State group is believed to be particularly active in some eastern provinces such as Nangarhar, Nuristan, Kunar and the northeastern Badakhshan province. This is while the Haqqani network, who is allied to the Taliban, has the upper hand in provinces of Khost, Paktia and Paktika. Some other Central Asian militants and the Al-Qaeda operatives are particularly active in Ghazni, Zabul and some northern provinces. The Taliban have dominance over other militant groups in southern provinces of Kandahar, Uruzgan and Helmand. Aimed at boosting their stance against the Afghan government as well as maintaining its supremacy over other militant factions, the Taliban launched the deadly spring offensive in many provinces particularly in the north. It is believed that the Taliban are attempting to have concrete gains on the ground before coming to table of peace negotiations with the government of Afghanistan.

Any supremacy in the battlefield would give the Taliban a considerable ground for more demands in peace talks. The Afghan security agencies should organize coordinated operations to repel the Taliban offensive at all fronts and deprive the group from the opportunity to have an upper hand in any peace negotiations. The recent setbacks for the ANSF in the fight against the Taliban are attributed to lack of advanced weaponry and lack of sufficient airpower backing ground offensives of the ANSF. The recent victories for ANSF in taking grounds back from the Taliban in Kunduz and Helmand provinces have come with a high price.

The government forces suffer high casualties in the fight against the Taliban. Afghan army and police units are sent to frontlines with no sufficient reinforcement and communication. It has happened in the past that Afghan army and police units are left alone in dangerous outposts highly susceptible to Taliban attacks. Military units have occasionally been taken ambush or come under surprise attacks while having no backup from the center or the regional military headquarters. Given this, the ANSF suffer a high rate of casualties as there is no sufficient backing from the units fighting in the battlegrounds. Lack of overall coordination between key security agencies has undermined the ANSF's ability to launch well-coordinated operations against the Taliban and other militant groups. The Afghan government needs to empower the ANSF by better equipping the country's air force through the United States and other international supporters of Afghanistan. The ANSF is praised for its handling of the security after it took the complete responsibility of security from NATO forces. However, still the Taliban have been able to expand the war to the north of the country and make some gains on the ground. The ANSF should reverse the recent gains made by the Taliban spring offensive in the northern Kunduz province and deprive the group from taking any political advantage from the military gains.