The security situation across the country is persistently worsening. In an attempt to gain territories, the Taliban have heightened their attacks against Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) in some northern and southern provinces. According to the Ministry of Interior, military offensive against the insurgents are underway in Takhar, Kunduz, Badakhshan, Sar-e-Pul, Logar, Uruzgan, Paktika and Helmand provinces. Hundreds of insurgents have been killed in a series of military operations last week by the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), the officials say. The ANSF managed to recapture Yamgan district of Badakhshan province from Taliban control, while elsewhere the Taliban captured the key Char Dara district in northern Kunduz province.

The exacerbating security conditions have sparked concerns among the lawmakers in the Upper House of the parliament. The lawmakers expressed their grave concerns on Sunday regarding the exacerbating security in Kunduz province and rise of the Islamic State group across the country particularly in eastern Nangarhar province. There have been media reports in recent days that the Islamic State group is actively recruiting in Nangarhar province as they are active in 14 districts of the province. On the other hand, security incidents and kidnappings in insecure provinces have been on the rise as a number of murder and abductions have taken place on insecure roads and highways in recent weeks.

The Taliban is now fighting for provincial capital of Kunduz province as the Islamic State group is said to be actively recruiting fighters in southern and eastern provinces. There is the probability of rapid expansion of the infamous Islamic State group as breakaway factions of the Taliban are joining the Islamic State group. The exacerbating trend puts the future of the country in ambiguity as the Afghan army and police forces are struggling to contain the militant groups. There are fears that if the government fails to improve the security situation across the country and counter the creeping resurgence of the militant groups, many volatile districts and provinces may fall to the Taliban. If key districts falls to the Taliban, as happened for Char Dara district of Kunduz province, the security situation would quickly deteriorate to the extent beyond control of the government.

In terms of security, the government is now facing two major and immediate threats: the rise of the Islamic State group and the Taliban’s spring offensive. However, the rise and expansion of the Islamic State groups is by far a larger threat for future security and stability of Afghanistan. The ANSF are expected to tackle the Taliban’s spring offensive efficiently as the Afghan army and police forces have already managed to deprive the Taliban from a major gain except the fall of the Char Dara district of Kunduz province which is already retaken from militants. However, the rise of the Islamic State would be as a game changer as it will alter the array of the jihadi groups and bring unforeseeable challenges to the stability and security of the country.

The robust and speedy process of recruitment by the Islamic State group is indicating that the group may expand more swiftly than expected before. The Taliban is struggling to prevent its members and splinted factions from joining the Islamic State group. However, Taliban members are increasingly parting ways with the main Taliban group and joining the newly emerged Islamic State, or Daesh. There are reports of splits within the Taliban into at least three parts: the main Taliban group loyal to Mullah Mohammad Omar, the breakaway factions joining the Islamic State and some moderate members advocating for negotiating with the government of Afghanistan. The rifts between the Taliban may not be in interests of the Afghan government as previously thought. Any major splits within the Taliban in the first hand would directly benefit the Islamic State group and help the group to expedite the rise in the country.

In the Middle East, the Islamic State groups have proved their capability and resilience in adapting themselves to the environment. Also in Afghanistan, the newly emerging militant group has the potential to recruit fighters and expand quickly as a savage Islamist group. This year is a challenging year for the government of Afghanistan not only due to emergence of the Islamic State but due to different regional Islamist groups taking footholds in the country. The Pakistani military offensive against the Pakistani Taliban in North Waziristan pushed the militant groups to take refuge in Afghanistan. This has now created an unprecedented level of security threats in many of the provinces. The recent kidnappings of civilians on highways and inland roads are attributed to the foreign jihadi groups operating on the Afghan soil.

Presently, the foreign militant groups have also posed threats to the Taliban as well as the group is now worrying about emergence of others groups not operating under flag of the Taliban. But the government cannot ignore the fact that the Islamic State group could turn into a major security threat in a very short span of time. Operation of foreign militant groups on Afghanistan’s soil would help the militants to create safe havens in insecure zones of the country for their future operation. The government needs to refocus on tackling the threat of the rising Islamic State group and other foreign militants operating in Afghanistan. The Afghan security agencies need to devise dedicated and transitional plans for countering the Taliban spring offensive as well as the expansion of the Islamic State group.