By Abdul Ahad Bahrami
Afghanistan has witnessed a spate of insurgent attacks in recent weeks as the Taliban are bracing for a fierce spring offensive. According to local officials in northeastern Badakhshan province, more than 20 Afghan soldiers and 27 Taliban fighters have been killed in Jurm district of the province during an intense fight between army units and the Taliban. Also, 12 army soldiers have gone missing during the battle. Elsewhere across the country, dozens of civilians and security have been killed in recent weeks in bombings and clashes as result of a sharp rise in Taliban’s insurgency activities. The rise in Taliban attacks marks the beginning of the deadly fighting season which begins in spring each year.
It is expected that the Taliban launch a massive campaign of violence against Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), government installations, Afghan officials as well as civilians. This year’s Taliban offensive is some sort of battling a last-ditch war for the group as the Taliban seem to be preparing for peace talks with the government of Afghanistan. By launching a widespread campaign, the militants aim to show that they have the upper hand in the fighting and still able to inflict heavy casualties. A bloody fight on the ground will give the Taliban leverage in any kind of future peace talks with the government of Afghanistan while a decline in Taliban insurgency is meant weakening the group in negotiations for reaching a peace deal.
All evidence, including the recent release of Mullah Omar’s biography by the Taliban, is suggesting that the Taliban leadership is preparing for negotiations with the government of Afghanistan. Pakistan is now putting unprecedented pressures on the group to come to table of negotiations with the new Afghan government. Also, the recent publication of Mullah Omar biographic essay has been interpreted as consolidating power and influence by the Taliban leadership under Mullah Omar before any kind of peace talks. It is highly likely the Taliban would pursue a dual course of negotiations for any possible peace deal along with continuing a bloody fight against the ANSF.
The continuity of the Taliban 14 year insurgency has become further complicated as the Islamic State, or Daesh, is emerging as new player in the field. The Taliban who have already opposed the Islamic State will be fighting not only the Afghan government forces but also struggling to limit influence of the emerging Islamic State. This may bring the dominant Taliban to face militarily the Islamic State who does not have much influence in Afghanistan. This will create a chaotic situation in the Afghan government’s fight against the militant groups as well as the jihadi activities of the two groups.
With the onset of the seasonal fighting, the Afghan civilians and the Afghan army and policy are going to shoulder the brunt of the war tolls. According to the UN mission in Afghanistan, nearly 3,700 civilians were killed and about 7,000 were wounded last year as fighting intensified ahead of the conclusion of the NATO combat mission in Afghanistan. The United Nations says that the Taliban and other affiliated groups are responsible for more than 70 percent of civilian tolls. With the Taliban determined to intensify the war as part of their spring offensive, this year will also be a bloody year for the Afghan civilians.
The onset of the Taliban spring offensive poses a very dire challenge to the ANSF as it is shouldering the burden of the war alone as the US-led coalition forces draw downed. This year’s fighting season will be a test of sustainability for the ANSF to keep the Taliban at bay and maintain security across the country as the NATO is going to conclude its 14-year Afghanistan mission. The army is already is suffering a high rate of casualties and desertion. However, Afghan security agencies performed incredibly well in securing the last year’s presidential election. If supported and equipped sufficiently, it will be able to forcefully fight the Taliban in the upcoming offensive of this year fighting season.
On the other hand, NATO resolute Support Spokesman said on Sunday April 12, 2015 that The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) now have the responsibility of providing security for 100 per cent of the country’s population, which is a significant force capability improvement since 2012 when security members protected only half of the population.
The Afghan unity government needs to have dedicated plans for containing the ongoing Taliban offensive and possible increase of war efforts by the group. The recent announcement of delay in withdrawal of the remaining US troops from Afghanistan was a timely development that would help the Afghan army better fight the Taliban. The Afghan security agencies need robust support from the NATO Resolute Support mission as it is in dire need of better equipment and weaponry in the fight against the Taliban. The government of Afghanistan should provide all possible political support needed for a robust operation against the militant groups.